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Beyond the Averages: How Our Model Uncovers True NBA Fantasy Value

Traditional season averages don't tell the whole story. Discover how FantasyEdge's advanced model identifies true fantasy value.
FantasyEdge Team
January 15, 2025
6 min read
Updated July 6, 2025
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We've all been there. You're staring at the draft board, looking at a bunch of season averages, and wondering who you should actually take next. Sure, 15 points per game looks good—but is it the same coming from a center as it is from a shooting guard? And what about that bench player who's suddenly been lighting it up for the past two weeks?

At FantasyEdge, we believe that relying on last year's stats is a losing game. To build a team that actually wins, you need more than just raw numbers—you need context, you need to know who's hot, and you need to understand which stats really matter. That's exactly where we come in.

Our system uses real-time NBA data to look deeper and figure out a player's true value. Here's how we do it:

Not All Stats Are Created Equal

An assist from a center? That's pure gold. A block from a guard? Even better. Our system adjusts every player's stats based on their position, so you're not just seeing who has the best numbers, but who is the most valuable at their spot. And players who can slot into multiple positions (like a G/F or F/C) get a little bonus because that flexibility is a huge, underrated advantage.

Forget Percentages, Think Volume

Shooting 90% from the free-throw line is awesome—unless you only take two shots a game. We look past the percentages and calculate the real impact. A guy who gets to the line ten times and shoots a little worse is often way more valuable than the guy who barely gets there. It's not about efficiency—it's about who actually helps you win categories.

Ride the Hot Streak

Season averages can lie. A player might have been quiet all year, but if he's exploding over the last 14 days because of an injury or a role change, he could be the guy who wins you the league. We scan different timeframes—the last 7, 14, and 30 days—to catch these breakout trends before your leaguemates even notice.

The Balancing Act

Let's be honest, some categories just matter more. That's why we give more weight to stats like points and free throw percentage. We also look at how many games a player actually plays—because what good is a star who's always on the bench? Finally, we add our own "confidence score," which is just our blend of expert knowledge and good old basketball sense.

Winning your league isn't about chasing big names or old stats. It's about making smart, timely decisions. Stop using outdated tools and get an edge that thinks like a GM.

Ready to dominate your league? Check out our updated rankings now.

Category: analysis